Oscar Predictions (And Hopes)

So. Finally. I have to come to my carefully considered (and considerably annoyed) decisions regarding my full list of Oscar predictions. Also included are the movies I want to win, some of which might, shock of all shocks, actually take home a few golden boys this year.

The Academy almost got it right for 2007 (almost), unlike 1999, the year they snubbed Magnolia and Fight Club for Best Picture noms (um...The Cider House Rules was nominated over both of these modern classics...it's a nice movie but...what the hell?). But really, they've always been getting it wrong (Around The World in Eighty Days? Dances With Wolves?).

But this year: The Coen Brothers and Paul Thomas Anderson? Daniel Day-Lewis and George Clooney? Javier Bardem, Julie Christie and Mark Twain himself, Hal Holbrook? Right on Oscar. (Did I just write that? Should I be slapped?) That being said, in a very 1999-ish move, David Fincher's masterpiece Zodiac was ignored in every freaking category. And no love for The Darjeeling Limited (at least in art direction)? Nothing for Nicole Kidman's blistering passive agressiveness in Margot at the Wedding. And where in God's name is the man who brought sexy/'70s back, the magnificent Josh Brolin?

OK, I'm not going to dive into rant mode. I'm not going to get all crazy-eyed, rocking back and forth, muttering through my hair over how misunderstood Ashley Judd and Bug were... so...deep breath, I'm returning to positive thoughts for Sunday night. Here are my predictions and here are my hopes:

Best Picture:

Predict: No Country For Old Men

Want: There Will Be Blood (This was tough. I revere both movies and No Country is superb. But after rewatching TWBB, I've come to the conclusion that it's a masterpiece, perhaps the greatest movie within this decade.)

Best Director:

Predict: Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men

Want: Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood

Best Actress:

Predict: Julie Christie, Away From Her

Want: Julie Christie, Away From Her

Best Actor:

Predict: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood

Want: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood

Best Supporting Actress:

Predict: Ruby Dee, American Gangster

Want: Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There

Best Supporting Actor:

Predict: Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men

Want: Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men

Best Screenplay:

Predict: Diablo Cody, Juno (she's wearing million dollar shoes for fuck's sake. Does she already know she's got it?)

Want: Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Predict: Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men

Want: Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men

Best Foreign Film:

Predict: Counterfeiters (Austria)

Want: Not sure yet...Not enough films are officially released here and the Academy always misses the great ones that are.

Best Film Editing:

Predict: No Country For Old Men

Want: No Country For Old Men

Best Cinematography:

Predict: Roger Deakins, No Country For Old Men

Want: Robert Elswitt, There Will Be Blood

Best Animated Film:

Predict: Ratatouille

Want: Persepolis

Best Documentary Feature:

Predict: No End In Sight

Want: Not sure... and why the hell wasn't The King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters nominated? Why must the Academy always screw up the documentary category?

Best Costumes:

Predict: Jacqueline Durran, Atonement

Want: Colleen Atwood, Sweeney Todd

Best Visual Effects:

Predict: Transformers

Want: The Golden Compass

Best Makeup:

Predict: La Vie En Rose

Want: La Vie En Rose

Best Art Direction:

Predict: Atonement

Want: There Will Be Blood

Best Score:

Predict: Atonement

Want: There Will Be Blood (OK. Not fair since it wasn't eligible but dammit! Johnny Greenwood's score is brilliant...and the movie did influence viewers to check out that Estonian genius Arvo Part...) Anyway... 3:10 To Yuma

Best Song:

Predict: "Falling Slowly," Once

Want: "Falling Slowly," Once

What are your predictions and hopes? And, I'm a gambling womans so...place your bets.

But more importantly, enjoy Sunday night. And most importantly, where the hell is Josh Brolin?!

Comments

[Felix Vasquez Jr.]

I really hope Persepolis takes it home. I know Disney has the Animation category rigged in their favor, but fuck sake, just give it to the deserving party.

And I just want to see me some Ellen Page, I don't care who wins best actress.

[Katel]

Glad you mentioned NIcole Kidman. I think because she started as a beautiful starlet she gets overlooked as a talentedfor daring actress. When it works- Dogville, Margot at the Wedding--it is incredible--when it doesn't work- birth, fir-- these are still very interesting failures. Just my thought.

[José]

Glad to see a little extra love or Brolin. I was able to interview him in Toronto last fall and was utterly charmed by his low-key confidence and unwillingness to see No Country as something more than a creative high-water mark in his career. He wisely kept himself from thinking the film's prestige would be directed at his performance in particular -as fine, nuanced and appealing as it is. I think he knew what he did was too understated and cleanly aligned to the Coens' quieter tonal approach to draw much attention from the likes of the shadowy Oscar people. At least Bardem and Lewis gave terrific outsized performances in brilliant films that could get acknowledged in his place.
Thanks too for bemoaning the appalling absence of Margo at the Wedding and especially Zodiac. But can I add two more absurd Oscar snubs for you consideration: Gordon Pinsent, the real heart of Away from Her (with all due respect to Christie), and 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days, which should have at least gotten a Best Foreign Film nod, though in a better world I would have liked to see Anamaria Marinca nominated for Best Actress as well.

[88ArterialSprays]

Tilda Swinton will upset Ruby Dee & Cate Blanchett in the Supporting Actress category. PT Anderson might pick up Adapted Screenplay since The Coen Bros. will definitely pick up Best Director already...although I wouldn't be upset if that was reversed.

[david e. ford, jr]

An interesting post and obviously you were correct in most of your predictions and in many cases you got what you wanted. To be honest, though, the Academy Awards are a bit of a joke and I think you know it. I do take considerable exception to your classification of Fight Club and Magnolia as modern classics. I really just don't see it. Fight Club may have been the single most overrated movie of the 1990s and happily it sort of signaled the beginning of the end of the Cinema of the Angry White Male. Magnolia was a baggy, sentimental monster, admittedly with some strong moments (and the play on tom cruise's real-life persona was brilliant). Zodiac, while not a terrible movie, seemed to me nothing more or less special than a well executed crime drama. the same goes for No Country For Old Men, though in this case I might say it was a flawlessly executed, more or less ordinary crime drama. There Will Be Blood also had its moments, but ultimately it got too bogged down in its confusion over its themes and the clever games it plays with the characters of paul and eli to ever be considered a legitimate masterpiece. It should absolutely have won the art direction award, however--and i think Day-Lewis's award was deserved. The one area in which you got it absolutely right was the ceremony's complete ignorance of The Darjeeling Vimited--my vote for best American movie of last year.

[Nathan]

I'm curious about your statement that TWBB is the greatest movie of this decade. It's definitely an amazing, powerful, great piece of filmmaking, but I'm still confused about what it all means. Specifically, I don't understand the relationship between Eli and Daniel. If you really think it's as good as you say, I would love to read a full essay explaining that position.